Spec Finish

Industry trends Who knows what will happen in 2021? The pandemic has limited our predictive horizons to weeks and months at best (or perhaps that’s always been the case). But Greg Mansell , Head of UK Research and Insight, Cushman &Wakefield says we can look to the future with humility and an open mind. OUTLOOK FOR : SMALL PRIZES AND BIG PENALTIES 20 www.thefis.org GregMansell,HeadofUKResearch and Insight,Cushman Wakefield PrimeofficesinBristolshouldbethetop performer in2022,thankstotheextremely lowavailabilityofprimespace I N a collective moment of introspection, occupiers are reviewing their properties to understand what space they need, and, in turn, investors will decide what assets they want to own. As a result, the difference in investment performance between sectors, and assets within each sector, will be highly polarised. Some buildings will be in high demand, while others will struggle. Although the economy will continue its recovery, it will still feel like a downturn. And, as always with downturns, the prizes for those that make the right decisions will be small, while those that make a mistake could suffer big losses. How the economy will perform in 2021 Fast growth doesn’t mean the economy is strong. The economy should grow by 6.7% in 2021, according to our base case, despite the service sector’s relapse during the latest lockdown. There are two things to keep in mind. • Firstly, annual growth could briefly hit double-digits by the summer, but this overshoot is just volatility in growth rates created by the sharp drop in output in April 2020. As a result, the impact of Brexit on the economy will be almost impossible to determine. • Secondly, economic output will not be back to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021. The economy will still be eating into slack capacity.

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy Mzg1Mw==